Bihar Elections 2025: Exit Polls Predict NDA Comeback, But Real Test Awaits

Patna, November 12 – As Bihar awaits the final count scheduled for November 14, exit polls released after the last phase of voting have sparked a political storm. Most major agencies forecast a strong comeback for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with seat projections varying widely across pollsters, ranging roughly between 133 and 167 in the 243-member Assembly.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, is projected to secure between 70 and 108 seats across different exit polls, currently projected significantly down from its 2020 tally. While the NDA appears confident, both sides are treading carefully, aware that Bihar's voters have defied pollsters before.

High Turnout, High Stakes

The Election Commission reported a provisional voter turnout of around 66.91 percent, the highest ever in the state's electoral history since 1951. The first phase saw participation of approximately 65.08 percent, while the second phase recorded around 68.8 percent (provisional figures), signaling widespread engagement across rural and urban constituencies. Female participation among registered women voters was particularly remarkable at 71.6 percent, marking a historic milestone. Political analysts believe this surge in turnout could be the result of youth and first-time voters eager to influence Bihar's direction on employment, education, and infrastructure.

Exit Poll Breakdown

According to projections from various agencies including India TV-Matrize, Chanakya, and People's Pulse, the NDA could cross the halfway mark comfortably, riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's governance record. Different pollsters show considerable variation: for instance, the India TV-Matrize exit poll predicts the NDA could win 147-167 seats, while Chanakya estimates 130-138 seats for the alliance. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to emerge as the single largest party within the alliance, while the Janata Dal (United) maintains its rural strongholds.

For the MGB, the RJD under Tejashwi Yadav may face a setback, particularly in regions where triangular contests have split the opposition vote. The newly formed Jan Suraaj Party led by Prashant Kishor is projected to have minimal impact, with most exit polls estimating 0-5 seats at best. However, Tejashwi dismissed the post-poll forecasts, calling them "psychological tools to influence perception" and asserting that ground feedback favors his alliance.

The Polling Mood

Observers note that the campaign was shaped by contrasting narratives. The NDA focused on stability, welfare schemes, and industrial investment, while the opposition hammered on unemployment and rising prices. Social coalitions, especially among backward and minority communities, played a key role, making several constituencies too close to call. According to political observers, the Seemanchal belt, comprising Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar, and Araria, emerged as a critical battleground with high minority density and fragmented vote patterns.

Caution Before Celebration

Despite the apparent momentum for the NDA, experts urge caution. Bihar's past elections, notably in 2020, have seen exit polls falter. In that election, most exit polls had predicted a clear Mahagathbandhan victory with some projections going up to 161 seats, while the NDA was given only 68-91 seats. However, the NDA ended up winning with 125 seats. With a vast rural electorate and caste-driven micro-dynamics, small sampling errors can skew projections dramatically. "Exit polls are an indicator, not a verdict," says political analyst Sanjay Kumar. "Bihar's results have surprised us before, and they can again."

What Comes Next

Counting will take place on November 14, starting at 8 AM, and early trends are expected by mid-morning. A decisive NDA win would mark a renewed endorsement of Nitish Kumar's leadership and the BJP's organizational muscle. Conversely, an upset victory for the MGB could rewrite Bihar's political arithmetic and re-energize the opposition ahead of future elections.

For now, Bihar stands at a familiar crossroads between continuity and change, between prediction and reality. As millions await the verdict, one truth remains certain: in Indian politics, the final word always belongs to the people.